Where Will SpaceX's Price Be in September? Here's What the Options Market Says.

SpaceX debuted at $135 per share following an $85 billion IPO—the world's largest—and has posted double-digit gains since launch. But options market pricing tells a different story: traders are assigning a 40% probability the stock falls below $130 by mid-September, signaling material downside risk despite the post-IPO rally.

The disconnect reflects mounting concerns over valuation and cash burn. SpaceX is spending $12 billion on AI infrastructure alone while remaining unprofitable, raising questions about whether growth in reusable rockets and satellite internet can justify current prices. The options market's bearish skew suggests institutional traders are hedging against near-term weakness, even as retail enthusiasm persists.

The $130 level now functions as a critical technical and psychological threshold. A breach would mark a reversal of the IPO momentum and validate options traders betting on mean reversion after the initial pop.